Official CS2 weapon-case odds are 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert, and 0.26% Gold. A Gold result is roughly 1 in 385 openings. If the Gold pool contains StatTrak-eligible knives, the compound chance of a StatTrak knife is about 0.026%, or roughly 1 in 3,850. Gloves use the Gold slot but are not StatTrak.
CS2 Cosmetic Item Odds at a Glance
| Rarity | Color | Official odds | Approx. frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | Blue | 79.92% | About 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | About 1 in 6 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.20% | About 1 in 31 |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | About 1 in 156 |
| Exceedingly Rare Special Item | Gold | 0.26% | About 1 in 385 |
These are the standard two-decimal weapon-case figures. Perfect World’s disclosure publishes the underlying values to three decimals as 79.923%, 15.985%, 3.197%, 0.639%, and 0.256%. The familiar 79.92% to 0.26% presentation is the practical reference used for CS2 case odds.
Rarity is only the first layer of the outcome. Once the game lands on a rarity tier, it selects an item from the eligible pool for that container. Perfect World’s rules state that different items of the same rarity in the same pool have equal base probability. For example, if a case has two Covert weapon skins, the 0.64% Covert tier is divided between those two base items before properties such as StatTrak, wear, and paint seed are considered.
0.26% for any rare special item in a standard weapon case. The Gold pool can contain knives or gloves depending on the container.
For an item that can be StatTrak, the official conditional rate is 1 in 10. That is separate from the rarity roll.
Standard weapon cases do not secretly boost Gold rarity odds. What changes between cases is the item pool and market value.
Why Valve Published Case Odds
CS:GO case probabilities became public in 2017 through Perfect World, Valve’s publishing partner in China. The disclosure followed Chinese rules requiring operators to publish probabilities for randomized paid rewards. It also established useful rules behind the tables: for Covert and lower rarities, each tier is generally one-fifth as likely as the tier below it, while the rare special-item tier is weighted 2-to-5 against Covert. Items of the same rarity within the same pool have equal base selection probability.
The disclosure also states that when an eligible item can be StatTrak, the StatTrak version has a 1-in-10 chance. Observed opening samples can land above or below the published rates, so sample results should not replace the official 10% StatTrak condition or the standard 0.26% rare-special figure.
Important: Published probability describes large-sample behavior. It does not promise that a short opening session will resemble the table, and it does not create a guarantee after any number of attempts.
Knife and Glove Odds
Standard Knife Odds: 0.26%
For a weapon case whose Gold pool contains knives, the chance of reaching that rare special-item tier is 0.26%, approximately 1 in 385 per opening. That is the chance of any Gold result, not the chance of one specific knife, finish, wear level, or pattern.
Every time you open a case it is like a try. If you open 384 cases and do not get a knife it does not mean that the 385th case will definitely have a knife. If you get a knife in one case it does not make it less likely to get a Gold item in the next case.
The full CS2 knife drop rate explains how the Gold result narrows into models, finishes, wear, and patterns after the rarity roll.
Container choice still matters because cases use different rare-special pools. The guide to all knife cases in CS2 maps those pools without changing the published 0.26% Gold probability.
Model-specific case pools are easier to compare separately. Some containers can produce Karambits, while a different set contains Butterfly Knives.
StatTrak Knife Odds: About 0.026%
StatTrak is a second condition layered on top of the rarity result. The official StatTrak probability is 10% for eligible items. For a knife case, 0.26% multiplied by 10% gives about 0.026%, or roughly 1 in 3,850 openings, for a StatTrak Gold knife. Do not confuse that compound figure with the 10% conditional StatTrak rate for an eligible weapon.
Glove Cases and the Dead Hand Terminal
Cases that use gloves as their rare special items still use the Gold slot. The key distinction is the contents of the Gold pool. A 0.26% Gold chance does not mean a 0.26% chance for one named glove finish.
The 2026 Dead Hand release is also easy to misname as a “Dead Hand case.” Valve introduced the Dead Hand Collection with 17 weapon finishes and 22 new gloves as rare special items, obtained through Dead Hand Terminals that can appear in the Weekly Care Package. Perfect World’s live probability disclosure groups the Dead Hand Terminal with key-opened weapon cases: its rare special-item probability is 0.256%, conventionally shown as 0.26%. In this container, the rare special items are gloves.
If your goal is ownership rather than the opening experience, how to get a knife in CS2 covers the main acquisition routes.
Skip the 1-in-385 odds.
Buy the knife or gloves you want directly on Tradeit, then filter by finish, wear, and pattern.
Souvenir Package Odds vs Weapon Cases
Souvenir packages are not weapon cases with a different label. They can have different rarity ladders, they do not contain a knife or glove Gold slot, and Souvenir items are not StatTrak. The exact percentages depend on how many rarity tiers are present in that package.
For a six-tier Major souvenir package or map collection containing Consumer Grade through Covert items, Perfect World’s published distribution is:
| Souvenir rarity | Published odds |
|---|---|
| Consumer Grade | 79.872% |
| Industrial Grade | 15.974% |
| Mil-Spec | 3.328% |
| Restricted | 0.666% |
| Classified | 0.133% |
| Covert | 0.027% |
A five-tier souvenir pool has a different top-tier rate, and smaller rarity ladders are normalized differently again. That is why a single generic “souvenir odds” table can be misleading. Always match the probability structure to the actual package and collection.
Sticker Capsule Odds
Sticker capsules use their own rarity structure. For a four-tier capsule containing High Grade, Remarkable, Exotic, and Extraordinary stickers, the published probabilities are 80.128%, 16.026%, 3.205%, and 0.641% respectively.
| Sticker rarity | Published odds |
|---|---|
| High Grade | 80.128% |
| Remarkable | 16.026% |
| Exotic | 3.205% |
| Extraordinary | 0.641% |
For many modern Major capsules, those tiers correspond broadly to paper, glitter, holo, and gold treatments, but the item labels inside a capsule should be checked rather than assumed. Two-tier and three-tier capsules use different published splits, so older simplified common, holo, foil, and gold shortcuts should not be treated as a universal CS2 sticker formula.
Armory and Special Container Odds
The Armory and newer Terminal systems are important because their probabilities should not be copied from weapon cases. Current Perfect World tables publish a five-tier structure for Armory weapon collections such as Graphic Design and Overpass 2024:
| Armory collection rarity | Published odds |
|---|---|
| Industrial Grade | 80.026% |
| Mil-Spec | 16.005% |
| Restricted | 3.201% |
| Classified | 0.640% |
| Covert | 0.128% |
That puts an Armory Covert at 0.128%, but it is not a Gold knife or glove roll. Armory sticker and charm pools with four rarity levels use 80.128%, 16.026%, 3.205%, and 0.641%. The Genesis Terminal is separately disclosed with a four-tier weapon distribution of 80.128% Mil-Spec, 16.026% Restricted, 3.205% Classified, and 0.641% Covert, with no Gold tier in that table.
Container type matters: Weapon cases, Dead Hand Terminals, Souvenir packages, sticker capsules, Armory collections, and Genesis Terminals are not interchangeable probability models. Check the actual rarity ladder before comparing top-tier odds.
How CS2 Case Odds Actually Work
The Roll Happens When You Open
A case does not carry a hidden preassigned skin while it sits in your inventory. When you use the key and commit the opening, the result is determined server-side from the container’s probability rules. The scrolling reveal is presentation, not a roulette wheel you can influence with timing.
That also means each opening is an independent event. Previous blues do not make a pink, red, or Gold “due.” There is no published pity timer, hot streak modifier, account-luck multiplier, or time-of-day boost. Prime Status affects eligibility for XP, Premier features, and Weekly Care Packages, but it does not improve case rarity odds.
Regional note: Container availability and opening interfaces can differ by jurisdiction. A different interface, restriction, or local disclosure should not be interpreted as a better rarity chance unless the applicable official probability table says so.
What “1 in 385” Really Means
The 1-in-385 shorthand is the reciprocal of a 0.26% per-opening probability. It describes the average scale of the event, not a schedule. For independent openings, the chance of seeing at least one Gold after several attempts is calculated as 1 minus the probability of missing Gold every time.
| Independent openings | Chance of at least one Gold | Chance of zero Golds |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | About 2.57% | About 97.43% |
| 100 | About 22.92% | About 77.08% |
| 385 | About 63.30% | About 36.70% |
So even after 385 openings, the chance of at least one Gold is only about 63.3%, not 100%. The probability on opening number 386 is still 0.26% regardless of what happened before. This is why streaks, dry spells, and unusually lucky runs can all occur without changing the underlying odds.
Compound Odds Get Small Fast
To estimate two independent conditions, multiply their probabilities. Gold followed immediately by another Gold is 0.26% × 0.26% = 0.000676%, about 1 in 147,929 pairs of openings. A StatTrak knife is about 0.26% × 10% = 0.026%. A specific knife, finish, wear range, and desirable paint seed requires still more conditions, so its probability can be far lower than the headline Gold rate.
Odds Are Not Expected Value
Fixed rarity odds do not make a case a good financial bet. Expected value depends on the price of the case, opening cost, every possible item value, wear, StatTrak eligibility, patterns, and the market price you can actually realize. Prices move while rarity probabilities can stay unchanged.
For that reason, there is no guaranteed profitable opening strategy. A case with the same 0.26% Gold chance as another can have a different expected return because its contents are priced differently. If you are comparing item pools and current economics, use the separate guide to the best cases to open in CS2. If you simply want a known skin instead of accepting random outcomes, browse the Tradeit skin catalogue.
Common CS2 Case-Odds Misconceptions
- “I am due a Gold.” No. A long losing run does not raise the next case’s 0.26% Gold probability.
- “Opening at a certain time helps.” No published odds rule gives better results by hour, day, animation timing, or server.
- “Prime improves case odds.” Prime changes account features and reward eligibility, not the rarity table inside a case.
- “One case has better knife odds.” Standard knife cases use the same Gold rarity probability. Specific knife pools and values differ.
- “1 in 385 means guaranteed by case 385.” It is an average-frequency description, not a countdown.
Ready to trade CS2 skins?
Trade, buy, or sell CS2 skins instantly on Tradeit with no Steam Wallet lock-in.
FAQ
Are CS2 cases predetermined the moment you click open?
The result is determined when the opening’s committed server-side, before the reveal animation finishes. The case is not sitting in your inventory with a sequence you can time or manipulate.
What are the exact CS2 case odds published by Valve?
The standard reference is 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert, and 0.26% rare special-item Gold.
What are the odds of getting a knife or gloves from a CS2 case?
A standard weapon case has a 0.26% Gold probability, about 1 in 385. Whether that Gold result can be a knife or gloves depends on the case’s rare special-item pool.
Are case odds the same across every CS2 case?
Standard weapon cases use the same rarity distribution. Their individual skins, knife or glove pools, and market values differ. Special containers such as souvenirs, Armory collections, and Genesis Terminals use different tables.
How do souvenir package odds compare to weapon cases?
Souvenir odds depend on the number of rarity tiers in the package. A six-tier package has a 0.027% Covert rate and no Gold knife or glove slot, so it should not be compared directly with a standard weapon case.
Are sticker capsule odds different from case odds?
Yes. A four-tier sticker capsule uses 80.128%, 16.026%, 3.205%, and 0.641% across High Grade through Extraordinary. Capsules with fewer rarity levels use different distributions.
Does using a StatTrak key change your odds?
No special key improves the rarity roll. For eligible items, StatTrak is a separate 10% conditional outcome. The compound chance of a StatTrak Gold knife is about 0.026%.
Do Prime accounts get better case odds?
No. Prime Status makes players eligible for XP, ranks, Premier and Weekly Care Packages. It does not change the rarity percentages inside a case.
Can you earn case drops from playing CS2?
Prime players are eligible for Weekly Care Packages through gameplay progression. Those reward pools can include containers. Receiving a case is separate from the rarity roll that occurs if the case is later opened.
What are the odds of back-to-back Gold pulls?
Using the 0.26% Gold rate for two independent openings, the probability is 0.000676%, roughly 1 in 147,929 consecutive pairs. Getting one Gold does not make the next Gold more or less likely.
