Chances of Getting a Knife in CS2 | Knife Odds

Knife Odds

In CS2, you can buy dozens of cases, each containing selections of skins of varying qualities and rarities. Many of these cases can give you, among other things, an exceedingly rare item. Such an item can be a knife skin or a pair of gloves. Some cases contain glove skins, others have knife skins, and others contain both. Kow the odds of getting a CS2 knife.

Luckily, that’s essentially what we’re exploring today. Game developers allow you to purchase a skin or get it by unboxing CS2 case. What are the chances of getting a knife in CS2?

Read on, and check out the odds of finding a knife in CS2 cases.

Odds of Getting a Knife in CS2 case

The odds of getting a knife in CS2 from a case is 0.26%, according to statistics of opening over 20,000 cases.

Many prominent YouTubers and other members of the CS2 community have previously engaged in extensive case unboxing sessions where they opened hundreds of cases consecutively to assess the likelihood of receiving a knife in the game. 

Looking at those unboxings can give us a good sense of the chances of actually receiving a knife. Via case unboxings, we can also attempt to calculate the chances of receiving the different item tiers in the game.

We can consider prominent CS2 YouTuber and Twitch streamer Anomaly as one of the better examples of this.

talon knife

Anomaly performed a 24-hour case opening broadcast in June 2021, during which he opened 4,000 CS2 cases containing keys valued at roughly $10,000. This offers us a huge sample size to work with, and by carefully examining the stream of opening cases, we can estimate the actual odds of knife drop rather precisely.

Anomaly obtained the following throughout his streams: 

  • 12 Counter-Strike 2 knives were yellows. 
  • 33 knives red. 
  • 113 knives pink. 
  • 624 purple knives out of the 4,000 cases. 

We can infer the following information from these statistics:

Yellow Extremely Rare Knife Skins0.26%
Red Covert Skins0.64%
Pink Classified Skins3.2%
Purple Restricted Skins15.98%
Blue Mil-spec Skins79.92%

The difference between the estimated and actual figures was not very significant. China’s ministry forbids game publishers from hiding odds from loot situations since doing so is considered gambling. Valve had to be honest, and they were forced to publish the message on their official CS2 website in Chinese version.

Valve’s Official CS2 Case Opening Odds

In CS2, rarity is not known precisely.

When you open a case, you have a chance to unbox each item included in it. There’s a high CS2 knife odds that you will unbox a Mil-Spec skin (79.92%), a smaller chance that you will unbox a skin (15.98%), and so on until you get to the exceedingly rare skins.

In each case, the exact odds of getting the StatTrak version are 10 times lower. On top of that, you must add the float value, which can go from 0 to 1. The most valuable versions of skin are the Factory New ones.

People also pay good money for Minimal Wear and Field-Tested arrangements, but the price goes lower and lower. You’ll only get a fraction of the Factory New price for Well-Worn and Battle-Scarred models.

The case odds of CS2 knife probability from loot boxes are roughly 1/400. But that’s the average. You may get a knife after opening just 10 cases, or you may get it after 1000 cases. If you want a knife skin, you could buy it on a skin trading market like Tradeit or the Steam Market.

Types of Knives

In CS2, there are many types of knives. If you want to unbox a knife weapon for a particular type of knife, you must check which cases contain it. The last thing you want to do is buy a few hundred cases of a type that doesn’t contain the type of knife skin you’re looking for.

Here’s a list of the types of CS2 knives that exist:

Knife Cases

Odds of Getting a CS:GO Knife

Almost every case in CS2 contains knife skins. The only exceptions are the cases that do not contain any exceedingly rare items or contain exclusively glove skins. Following are the cases which are the wrong cases to open if you are looking for knife skins: 

When you buy a CS2 case, verify that it contains a yellow item and that the list of possibilities when unboxing such an item includes knife skins. With very few exceptions, it will.

How to Obtain a Knife Skin? 

If you don’t already have a knife skin in your inventory and want to buy your first knife on a skin trading website, you should start by asking yourself: what is my price target? A marketplace will give you many options, but knife skins are generally expensive. Use the price filter to see just the options within your budget. Any site where you can buy or sell skins will contain such a filter.

If you want to unbox a knife skin and don’t care about any other skins, you should buy the cheapest cases that contain the types of knife skins you like and then unbox them. Be prepared to spend at least a few hundred dollars before you find what you want because knife skins are very rare items.


Here is our comprehensive guide to the odds of getting a knife in CS2 cases. We have discussed the knife skins’ probability in detail; we hope you find this guide helpful and understanding. 

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Posted by
William Westerlund

William is an author, editor, and an avid gamer with over 10.000 hours in CS:GO (Counter-Strike 2). He also enjoys playing Rust, Dota 2, and TF2 but never became a top 1% player in any of those games.