CS2 Case Simulator

How the case simulator works

The simulator rolls each opening the way CS2 does: rarity tier first, then a skin from that tier, then StatTrak, float and pattern, all before the reel starts to spin.

Here is what happens on every opening.

1. 1

   Pick a case. All 42 weapon cases are here, from the 2013 CS:GO Weapon Case to the 2025 Fever Case. The panel shows every skin inside, what one opening costs and the case’s average return.

2. 2

   Roll the tier. The simulator picks the rarity tier at Valve’s published odds, then one skin from that tier, each equally likely. A knife or glove result picks a finish, then a Doppler phase where there is one.

3. 3

   Roll the details. Each result gets its own StatTrak roll, a float drawn inside that skin’s own range and a pattern seed, exactly like a real opening.

4. 4

   Compare the price. Every pull shows what that exact skin costs on Tradeit, next to what the opening cost you.

The odds behind every opening

Every CS2 weapon case uses the same five odds, the rates Valve disclosed in 2017. Each skin within a tier is equally likely, and there is no pity timer, so every opening is independent.

For the full picture, read our breakdown of CS2 case odds and the chances of getting a knife.

Why some skins can never be Factory New

Every skin has its own float range, and the simulator draws the float inside it. The wear label is read from that final float, so a skin can only come out in the wears its range covers.

The AWP | Asiimov starts at 0.18, so it is never Factory New or Minimal Wear. It comes out Field-Tested in 40.5% of openings, Well-Worn in 12.2% and Battle-Scarred in 47.3%.

Check the exact float of a skin you own with the CS2 float checker.

StatTrak, and why gloves never have it

About 1 in 10 weapon skins and knives come out StatTrak. Gloves never do, because no StatTrak version of any glove exists.

That makes a StatTrak knife roughly a 1 in 3,850 opening. Not every simulator gets the glove rule right, so a StatTrak glove result is a sign the odds behind a tool are off.

Doppler phases and how rare a Ruby really is

Valve has never published Doppler phase odds, but its own item data grades every phase. Ruby and Sapphire sit one grade above the numbered phases, and Black Pearl one grade above that.

We weight phases by those grades, and the market agrees: about 4 Rubies are listed for every Black Pearl. Simulators that treat every phase as equally likely make Ruby and Sapphire about 3 times too common, and Black Pearl about 16 times.

Shares are of all results from that finish. Learn to tell them apart in our guide to Doppler phases.

Opening cases or buying the skin

On average, every case returns less than the case and key cost. Four openings in five land a Mil-Spec skin, and much of a case’s value sits in results that are under 1% likely.

The average return beside each case shows its figure at Tradeit prices. If you want a specific skin, buying it directly costs a fraction of opening for it. If you want a knife, five Covert skins in the trade up calculator is a guaranteed route instead of a 1 in 385 chance. See which cases come closest in our best cases to open guide.